Predictions

0:04 We think OpenAI's next year looks like its last: point releases of GPT-6 every few months, a new flagship generation about a year after GPT-6 Astra, its first device with Jony Ive's team, more of ChatGPT Work for free users, prices that stay put at the $20 tier, and a race with Google and Anthropic in which no one stays ahead for long.

These are Vi.ki's own predictions and opinions, not reported facts. Each one says what we base it on and when it can be checked. We will mark each one right or wrong when it resolves.

When will GPT-7 come out?

We think OpenAI releases a new flagship generation, named GPT-7 or something like it, between Sep and Dec 2027.

Confidence: Possible. Check by: Dec 2027.

Why we think so: GPT-5 became ChatGPT's default on Aug 7, 2025 and GPT-6 Astra arrived on Sep 3, 2026, about thirteen months later, with numbered GPT-5.x updates every one to three months in between (GPT Model History). We expect the same rhythm: GPT-6.x updates through the first half of 2027, then the next generation about a year after Astra. OpenAI has not announced anything about it as of Nov 7, 2026.

What would prove us wrong: a new generation released before Sep 2027, or none by the end of 2027.

Will OpenAI release a GPT-6.1 Astra or GPT-6.5?

We think a numbered update to the flagship (GPT-6.1 Astra, GPT-6.5 or similar) is released by Mar 31, 2027.

Confidence: Likely. Check by: Mar 2027.

Why we think so: Sol got its 6.1 update a week after GPT-6 Sol, and Terra arrived as a 6.1 model on Oct 26, 2026 (GPT-6), so the flagship is the only member of the family without a point release. In 2026, OpenAI's flagships changed on Mar 5 (GPT-5.4), Apr 23 (GPT-5.5), Jul 9 (GPT-5.6) and Sep 3 (GPT-6 Astra) (GPT Model History), never more than about four months apart.

What would prove us wrong: GPT-6 Astra still being OpenAI's newest flagship on Apr 1, 2027.

Will ChatGPT Plus get more expensive?

We think ChatGPT Plus is still $20 a month in the US at the end of 2027.

Confidence: Likely. Check by: Dec 2027.

Why we think so: Plus has cost $20 since it launched on Feb 1, 2023 (ChatGPT Plans and Pricing). Instead of raising it, OpenAI has added plans around it: Go at $8 below, and Pro at $100, $200 and $500 above. Claude Pro is also $20 (ChatGPT vs Claude) and Google AI Pro $19.99 (ChatGPT vs Gemini), so in our view the first of the three to raise its main plan would hand the others an easy advertisement.

What would prove us wrong: a US Plus price above $20 a month before Jan 1, 2028.

Will ads come to ChatGPT Plus?

We think ads stay off every paid plan from Plus up through 2027, while ads on Free and Go reach more than 120 countries.

Confidence: Likely. Check by: Dec 2027.

Why we think so: ads began testing on Free and Go on Feb 9, 2026 and reached 89 countries by Oct 21, 2026 (Ads in ChatGPT), so the rollout has moved quickly where it is allowed. "No ads" is one of the things Plus is sold on (ChatGPT Plus), and in our view breaking that would cost OpenAI more in cancellations than the ads would earn.

What would prove us wrong: ads shown on Plus or a higher plan, or ads in 120 countries or fewer at the end of 2027.

How many people will use ChatGPT?

We think OpenAI announces 1.5 billion weekly users of ChatGPT by the end of 2027.

Confidence: Possible. Check by: Dec 2027.

Why we think so: OpenAI said more than a hundred million used it weekly in May 2024 and more than 1.2 billion on Oct 21, 2026 (ChatGPT). Growth slows as a product gets this big, but cheaper Go plans and ad-supported Free accounts in more countries keep adding people where it is newest. A quarter more in about a year is our estimate of where that leaves it.

What would prove us wrong: no OpenAI figure of 1.5 billion or more weekly users by Dec 31, 2027.

Will OpenAI release a new open-weight model?

We think OpenAI releases at least one new general open-weight model, a successor to gpt-oss, in 2027.

Confidence: Possible. Check by: Dec 2027.

Why we think so: gpt-oss-120b and gpt-oss-20b came out on Aug 5, 2025 under Apache 2.0, and OpenAI had released no newer general open-weight model by Nov 6, 2026 (gpt-oss). Open models from other makers have kept improving since, and in our view a two-year-old open model is too old to keep developers who run models on their own machines in OpenAI's orbit.

What would prove us wrong: no new general open-weight model from OpenAI in 2027.

Will OpenAI show its first device?

We think OpenAI shows its first hardware device, designed with Jony Ive's team, by the end of 2027, and that it has no screen and works mainly through voice and ChatGPT.

Confidence: Possible. Check by: Dec 2027.

Why we think so: OpenAI merged with io, the hardware company Jony Ive founded, on Jul 9, 2025, with Ive and LoveFrom taking on design work across OpenAI (History of OpenAI). No OpenAI page names a device, price or date as of Nov 6, 2026. Two and a half years from the merger is a normal time for a first device, and in our view a company whose best product is a voice and chat assistant (ChatGPT) builds hardware around it rather than another phone.

What would prove us wrong: no OpenAI device shown by Dec 31, 2027, or one built around a screen.

Will custom GPTs really retire on Dec 11, 2026?

We think custom GPTs retire across ChatGPT on Dec 11, 2026 as announced, with no general extension, and plugins take their place.

Confidence: Likely. Check by: Dec 2026.

Why we think so: OpenAI has set the date, given FedRAMP and approved Enterprise customers until Feb 11, 2027, and built a Migrate to plugin button for owners (Custom GPTs). In 2026 it retired Sora, Atlas, Pulse and canvas as planned (History of ChatGPT), and in our view it does not move retirement dates once set.

What would prove us wrong: custom GPTs still usable by ordinary Plus or Free users after Dec 11, 2026.

Will ChatGPT Work come to the Free plan on phones?

We think Free and Go users get ChatGPT Work on the web and in the mobile apps, not only the desktop app, by the end of 2027.

Confidence: Possible. Check by: Dec 2027.

Why we think so: as of Nov 6, 2026, Free and Go get limited Work in the desktop app only, while Plus and higher get it everywhere (ChatGPT Work). OpenAI has brought each new mode to Free in a limited form before, as with Codex (Codex), and in our view most free users reach ChatGPT on their phones. We think the cheaper GPT-6 Luna and Terra models make it affordable.

What would prove us wrong: Work still desktop-only for Free and Go at the end of 2027.

Will OpenAI bring back a video app after Sora?

We think OpenAI does not launch a new stand-alone consumer video app in 2027, though video generation may come back inside ChatGPT or the API.

Confidence: Possible. Check by: Dec 2027.

Why we think so: the Sora app and website were shut down on Apr 26, 2026 (History of ChatGPT), and OpenAI's 2026 has been about folding products into one app (Chat, Work and Codex together, plugins replacing custom GPTs) rather than adding separate ones (ChatGPT, Custom GPTs). We think the same logic keeps any new video feature inside ChatGPT.

What would prove us wrong: a new OpenAI consumer video app in the app stores in 2027.

Will ChatGPT top the AI leaderboards again?

We think an OpenAI model is ranked first on the LMArena text leaderboard at some point in 2027, but holds that place for less than half the year, trading it with Google and Anthropic.

Confidence: Possible. Check by: Dec 2027.

Why we think so: as of Nov 6, 2026, Gemini ranks above ChatGPT on the public chat leaderboards (ChatGPT vs Gemini) and Claude leads them for writing and coding (ChatGPT vs Claude). Each maker's new flagship has tended to take the top spot for a while before the next rival release, and OpenAI's next flagship is due within the year by our own estimate above. In our view no maker now has a lead that lasts a full year.

What would prove us wrong: OpenAI first on the LMArena text leaderboard for more than half of 2027, or never first at all.

What creators predict

Nilay Patel: OpenAI fails in 2026

33:36 On The Vergecast of Dec 14, 2025, The Verge's Nilay Patel made his "spicy" prediction for 2026: "OpenAI fails", gone, with Microsoft keeping the models. We think he is wrong: by Oct 21, 2026 OpenAI reported more than 1.2 billion weekly users and had shipped the GPT-6 family (ChatGPT, GPT-6), and nothing on this viki points to a collapse before the year ends.

Check by: Dec 2026.

AI Explained: progress will only speed up

28:07 In his Sep 4, 2026 video on GPT-6 Astra, AI Explained's Philip argued that "the month-to-month pace of progress is currently as slow as it will ever be", and that most people will realize only weeks or months later how big a step GPT-6 is. We think he is right about the pace for 2027, which is why we expect a GPT-6 point release within months and a new generation by the end of the year.

Check by: Dec 2027.

Theo: OpenAI will fight back after Sonnet 5.5

4:42 In his Sep 29, 2026 video on Claude Sonnet 5.5, Theo told viewers to watch OpenAI's DevDay "to keep up with how OpenAI is fighting back. And trust me, they're going to be fighting back." That came true within a month: OpenAI released GPT-6.1 Terra, a fast low-cost model, on Oct 26, 2026 and doubled Pro 100 and Pro 500's Work and Codex allowance on Oct 29 (GPT-6.1 Terra, ChatGPT Plans and Pricing).

Check by: Dec 2026.

Our take

We think ChatGPT is still the best single app for most people, because it does the most things in one place: chat, images, voice, research, Work for finished documents, and Codex for code (ChatGPT). We think its free plan is the most generous of the big three, but in our view ads on Free and Go are now a real reason to pay for Plus if you use it every day (Is ChatGPT Free).

We think ChatGPT is not the best at everything. In our view Claude is the better writer and coding partner today, which the leaderboards bear out (ChatGPT vs Claude), and Gemini is the better pick for anyone who lives in Google's apps (ChatGPT vs Gemini). We think Pro 500 is overrated for almost everyone, and that Plus with Codex is the best value for most developers (ChatGPT Plus vs Pro).

We think OpenAI's habit of retiring products quickly (Sora, Atlas, Pulse, canvas, custom GPTs) is the biggest reason to keep your important work exported rather than stored only in ChatGPT (How to Export ChatGPT Data).

Frequently asked questions

When will GPT-7 come out?

OpenAI has not announced it. We think a new flagship generation arrives between Sep and Dec 2027, about a year after GPT-6 Astra, with GPT-6 point releases before it.

Will ChatGPT Plus go up in price?

We think not in 2027. In our view $20 a month is held in place by Claude Pro and Google AI Pro at the same price, and OpenAI adds plans around it instead.

Is OpenAI making a device?

OpenAI merged with Jony Ive's hardware company io in 2025 but has named no device. We think it shows one by the end of 2027, with no screen, built around voice and ChatGPT.

Will ChatGPT Plus get ads?

We think not. Ads are on Free and Go only, and in our view "no ads" is too central to what Plus sells for OpenAI to give it up in 2027.

Is ChatGPT still the best AI chatbot?

We think it is the best all-in-one app, but not the best at everything: in our view Claude leads for writing and coding and Gemini for people who use Google's apps.

Sources

• The end of OpenAI, and other 2026 predictions | The Vergecast, The Verge, Dec 14, 2025 (video)
• GPT 6 Astra, so good even OpenAI are worried, AI Explained, Sep 4, 2026 (video)
• OpenAI should be scared of this one, Theo - t3.gg, Sep 29, 2026 (video)
• Introducing GPT-6 Astra for developers, OpenAI, Sep 4, 2026 (video)